Description

This analysis provides a forecast of TRB prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-02-16 22.413812 26.928210 31.916088 37.808348 44.549924 51.993313 60.802940
2025-02-23 15.548715 21.375896 28.501892 37.734234 49.245300 62.985417 80.473947
2025-03-02 11.445246 17.565765 25.680703 36.964233 51.953186 70.867501 96.184038
2025-03-09 8.962764 15.149429 23.941264 36.905284 55.030259 78.924483 112.169525
2025-03-16 6.649212 12.401853 21.163866 34.841774 54.913107 82.466857 122.177465
2025-03-23 5.666228 11.460299 20.793481 36.031112 59.239435 92.089124 140.688429
2025-03-30 4.556928 10.052332 19.441370 35.493082 60.876177 97.910743 154.124309
2025-04-06 4.067031 9.631680 19.600015 37.271526 66.038934 108.993583 175.465707
2025-04-13 3.033620 7.932234 17.295247 34.719804 64.189169 109.532458 181.462816
2025-04-20 2.612957 7.374337 16.932286 35.370152 67.430509 117.832919 199.207122
2025-04-27 2.293465 6.960151 16.767586 36.321376 71.187238 127.066521 218.703174
2025-05-04 2.043773 6.647329 16.747778 37.508721 75.384551 137.152675 239.873488
2025-05-11 1.753033 6.206212 16.496030 38.421419 79.503932 147.859631 263.371565
2025-05-18 1.422012 5.564737 15.728212 38.286163 81.832311 155.909427 283.303082
2025-05-25 1.115397 4.874691 14.711840 37.503428 82.878829 161.835618 300.054365
2025-06-01 0.907021 4.399002 14.094834 37.443563 85.214866 170.004275 320.738234
2025-06-08 0.654254 3.648854 12.632140 35.355623 83.464674 170.972491 329.506156
2025-06-15 0.571532 3.485109 12.655965 36.559066 88.213732 183.547133 358.189501
2025-06-22 0.448145 3.090213 11.961472 36.014666 89.398770 189.788508 376.331727
2025-06-29 0.407637 3.040681 12.245338 37.814097 95.486675 205.169967 410.724269
2025-07-06 0.276787 2.463726 10.811721 35.232201 92.223369 203.189906 414.850024
2025-07-13 0.233265 2.313476 10.678010 35.890278 95.882592 214.252494 442.275489
2025-07-20 0.200943 2.206239 10.663340 36.852759 100.260432 226.850401 472.844603